Tim's Week 2 College Football Newsletter
Greetings from Eugene, Oregon!
It’s the Oklahoma State Cowboys and Oregon Ducks for me this weekend and let me just say, don’t let anyone tell you that this Week 2 slate sucks. That’s a losers mentality. There’s still so much to learn about these teams and believe me, Week 2 has plenty of enticing under the radar matchups.
TIM'S WEEK TWO TOP 25 RANKINGS:
WHAT'S ON MY MIND?
Last week was incredible, no doubt about it, but why do people tell us that we can’t overreact to one game? Like why can’t we? If we can’t draw conclusions from watching football games, then what are we supposed to do? Why watch? Why play the games? “It’s a long season.” Actually, I don’t think the season is that long at all. You play 12 games. That’s a sprint! Not to mention, how many of those 12 games is your team actually getting a meaningful test? I think everyone should be encouraged to overreact, draw conclusions and make assumptions. That’s what being a fan is all about. That’s the ride. That’s the journey. Sure, if I was the coach at one of these schools I’d have a more stoic demeanor. I’d assure my team that our focus is to get better everyday and to block out the noise, both positive and negative. But that’s not my job, that’s not any of our jobs! Our job is to be the noise. So don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t start booking flights to the Natty after a big Week 1 win and certainly don’t let anyone tell you that you can’t call for your entire coaching staff to be fired after a disappointing Week 1 performance. That’s what it’s all about. That’s the point of all this. That’s why we’re fans and that’s why we watch. Get emotional, get delusional, get locked in. Welcome to Week 2.
WEEK 2 MATCHUP PREVIEWS
#12 Illinois (-3) @ Duke | Total: 49.5 | 12:00 PM EST
You might be a little confused as to why this line is just Illinois (-3). Allow me to explain. Yes, a lot of people (including myself) are high on the Illini this year because of the amount of production they returned including QB Luke Altmyer, their entire OL and a majority of the defense. That, along with a largely favorable Big Ten draw is certainly a fortuitous combination, but we know the game ain't played on paper. Meanwhile Duke quietly won 9 games last year, returned 11 starters and made a huge slash in the portal snagging Tulane QB Darian Mensah, in what’s rumored to be the largest NIL deal ever. Mensah threw for 389 last week, granted against Elon, but there’s a strong chance this Duke team is even better than they were in Many Diaz’s first year. All that said, if Illinois is going to be a playoff hopeful, this is one they simply have to have which is why I’m leaning their way here. If it was a night game, maybe I would feel differently. Be sure to watch the matchup between Harvard transfer WR Cooper Barkate for Duke going up against All-B1G corner Gabe Jacas in a game I think the Illini squeak out in Durham.
Iowa @ #22 Iowa State (-3.5) | Total: 41.5 | 12:00 PM EST
By mid-afternoon Saturday, one of these schools will possess the Cy-Hawk trophy, and we’ll likely have watched more punts than scoring plays if history is any indication in this rivalry. They haven’t exactly faced a dynamic defense yet, but through two matchups with Kansas State and South Dakota, Rocco Becht has put up 461 yards with 5 TD and 0 INT. The run game has been problematic, but for a team that lost its top two WRs they’ve answered the bell so far. Still, it’s gonna be awfully hard for me to resist betting on the Hawkeyes (+3) here. The main reason is I think Iowa State’s travel might catch up to them here. They went to Dublin and back, and while they handled South Dakota, it can catch up this week. Iowa also added the top FCS transfer QB in Mark Gronkowski, and though he threw for just 44 yards last week against Albany, they mainly leaned on their run game which racked up 310 yards. With this veteran o-line, and a new wave of RBs replacing Kaleb Johnson, I think Iowa does enough on both sides here to cover in a total rock fight.
Baylor @ #16 SMU (-2.5) | Total: 64.5 | 12:00 PM EST
Baylor is probably still kicking themselves for the way things went down last week against Auburn. Even if the Tigers looked great, Baylor was 4 yards away from taking a 10-0 lead. Suddenly, just 12 minutes later they were down 14-3 and never caught back up. What was supposed to be one of the best front-sevens in the Big 12 got absolutely manhandled by Auburn. To make matters worse, QB Sawyer Robertson didn’t look fully recovered from last year’s ankle injury which slowed him down as a runner. So SMU is the play right? Not so fast. I still lean Baylor here. I expect a shootout and even though SMU’s Kevin Jennings is an absolute stud I'm gonna roll the dice and say Baylor gets one more stop. Auburn is gonna prove to be better than people thought and this is still an SMU defense that has to replace 9 starters from a year ago. Give me the Bears.
Oklahoma State @ #7 Oregon (-28.5) | Total: 55.5 | 3:30 PM EST
I can’t tell if Mike Gundy has completely lost it or if this is just the charismatic cowboy’s latest chapter. It certainly seems like Oklahoma State is a program on the decline. They went 3-9 last year and find themselves as four-touchdown underdogs going into Eugene. The product on the field is pretty much unrecognizable for a Gundy coached team, but when it comes to the podium, coach still has his fast ball. Gundy spent pretty much the entire week lamenting that Oregon has more money than they do and that it’s unfair. It was likely a message to his own administration and boosters than a shot at the Ducks, nonetheless it added an entertaining layer to this matchup. I also should mention that Oklahoma States’s QB Hauss Hejny broke his foot last week against UT-Martin which thrusts Zane Flores into the starting role. Oregon’s new QB is Dante Moore who sat last year behind Dillon Gabriel, and started with an efficient 213-yard 3 TD performance. Oregon added 4 transfer OL in the portal, return skill guys all over, and will have a defense good enough to support the offense. If you’re nitpicking, Makhi Hughes came over in the portal from Tulane as one of the top RBs and had just one carry in the opener with no explanation from Lanning. All signs are pointing to a major quack attack, but I’m a sicko and I plan on holding my nose and taking the Pokes (+28.5). Watching a backdoor cover in person will hit different.
Kansas @ Missouri (-6.5) | Total: 50.5 | 3:30 PM EST
The 121st edition of the Border Showdown (War) returns after a 14-year hiatus. Missouri started the year with a QB-battle and was set on playing two QBs until it was decided. The plan was immediately derailed when Sam Horn suffered a brutal leg injury last week on his first touch of the game. That leaves Beau Pribula, who’s famous for leaving Penn State during their playoff run last year to cash in on a portal offer from Eli Drinkwitz. We only got to see Pribula in some designed packages at Penn State, but last week he went for 348 total yards and 4 TDs against inferior Central Arkansas. On the other side, Kansas hasn’t been tested yet and has played 8 full quarters of football thanks to a Week 0 start. Jalon Daniels has looked sharp in his 25th season starting at QB as he’ll face a Missouri defense that returns 8 starters. If I can get Kansas (+7) or better I’m gonna grab it. Having an experienced QB on the road should bode well for the Jayhawks, especially when the guy on the other side is still getting his feet wet. If you’re unfamiliar with this rivalry, make sure you tune in. These two teams absolutely hate each other.
#11 Arizona State (-6.5) @ Mississippi State | Total: 58.5 | 7:30 PM EST
The Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson connection picked up where it left off last year, with Tyson going for 12/141/2 and Leavitt running for 73 and two scores of his own. Arizona State hasn’t quite gotten the attention you’d expect given they were a Playoff team a year ago and returned 17 starters. The concern for me is that they won a number of close games last year and have to replace superstar Cam Skattebo. Kyson Brown, who averaged 10.4 yards per carry in the opener, looked like their best RB, but it’s still big shoes to fill . Even though the Jeff Lebby era hasn’t been off to a great start at Mississippi State, they’re still an SEC team playing at home in primetime. They made some improvements on defense through the portal and QB Blake Shapen is finally healthy after missing pretty much the entire season. Frankly, this is one of the few games Mississippi State has a real chance to win this year and I think they know that. I expect the Bulldogs to empty the tank in Stark Vegas and give ASU everything they can handle. I’ll be betting Mississippi State spread and moneyline, I’m just waiting to see if we can get a (+7) to pop back up.
#14 Michigan @ #18 Oklahoma (-4.5) | Total: 44.5 | 7:30 PM EST
Don’t let anyone tell you that this week’s slate is a letdown from Week 1. This is an incredibly captivating headliner that’s oozing with storylines. We’ll start with Michigan. They remarkably won 8 games last year despite a brand new defense and zero semblance of a quarterback. Now the Wolverines believe they have their guy in true freshman Bryce Underwood. The highly touted, NIL rich, Michigan high school product was rock solid in their opener and showcased a passing offense that Michigan fans have been clamoring for. For Oklahoma, it’s all about their new QB, Washington State transfer John Mateer. If you haven’t seen Mateer before, the way he played at Wazzu would remind you of Baker Mayfield, which would be a welcomed sight for Brent Venables who is likely on his last stand at Oklahoma. I think both defenses are a wash here in what should be a low scoring affair, however on offense I’m gonna give Oklahoma the edge. I just think it’s a lot to ask out of Bryce Underwood who’s a true freshman making his very first road start. I think Oklahoma wins but I still can’t decide if they cover. I have a bad number from the summer in Michigan (+3) cause I thought Mateer was gonna get suspended.
The Money Section
Best Bets
Boston College (+4.5) at Michigan State
Michigan State’s quarterback Aidan Chiles was a super talented prospect coming out of high school, but he has yet to reach his full potential at the collegiate level mainly because his line cannot keep him clean. Those problems persisted in their opener last week as he was sacked four times against an inferior Western Michigan team. Until that is cleaned up, it’s going to be very difficult to trust the Spartans. As for the Eagles, it’s difficult to draw too many conclusions from their Week 1 throttling of Fordham, but they looked sharp and Bill O’Brien clearly runs a competent college program. Alabama transfer Dylan Lonergan won the starting QB job and WR Lewis Bond is a gamebreaker on the outside. Simply put, I think we get a low scoring game and these two teams are more evenly matched than the spread indicates. Give me BC to cover in East Lancing.
Ole Miss @ Kentucky Under 50.5
I almost went with North Carolina (-13.5) here but I assumed none of you could stomach that so let’s go with the next best thing, an under! This is mainly about Kentucky, for them to have a shot in this game they need it to be low scoring. Additionally their new transfer QB Zach Calzada was less than spectacular in his Wildcat debut going 10 for 23 with just 85 yards. On the Ole Miss side, the box score tells a bit of a different story than what it actually looked like. They put up a big number against Georgia State but first year starter Austin Simmons still showcased some growing pains. Both teams are gonna commit to running the ball which will slow things down. Give me slog in Lexington.
How ‘Bout Some Guys
Josh Cameron higher than 55.5 receiving yards
Cameron is one of the best returning WRs in the Big 12, and with the total for their matchup with SMU sitting in the 60s, you gotta think this guy is gonna get enough targets to hit this number. It’s as simple as: picking Baylor's best receiver to have a big day against a weak defense.
Zane Flores higher than 164.5 passing yards
This one’s a bit terrifying as they’re playing against Oregon and are 28-point underdogs, but hear me out. Flores is getting the nod at QB because their starter got hurt in the opener last week and there is virtually no depth at this position. Sure, the Cowboys get blown out but I think Flores pretty much plays the entire game and racks up enough yards in garbage time.
Brenen Thompson higher than 47.5 receiving yards
Last week Thompson led the way for Mississippi State with 7 catches for 92 yards off of 9 targets. With Shapen finally healthy at QB, I think the Bulldogs hang around against ASU. Lebby is gonna want to throw the ball regardless of the score which gives plenty of opportunity for Thompson.
Under Pressure
Brent Venables
In the Venables tenure at OU, he’s a pedestrian 4-4 against ranked teams. It isn’t horrible, but it isn’t Oklahoma national title threat level either. A huge opportunity awaits the Sooners, with a Michigan team coming into Norman with a freshman QB and a suspended coach. You have to think if this isn’t the weekend for Venables and the Sooners, then when will it be?
Illinois
This is not some sneaky spot for the Illini where they have to avoid getting tripped up. No, this game could determine their entire 2025 fate. This is a team with high aspirations and even though Duke’s no slouch, you just cannot lose this game. This ain’t the Maui Invitational. This ain’t some fun tune up eight weeks before we start conference play. This is a major test that Illinois has to pass in order to be considered a serious Playoff contender.
Brent Pry
I fell for it last week and took Virginia Tech to cover against South Carolina, and while they looked good at times, Brent Pry’s already warm seat is getting hotter. Now VT welcomes a Vanderbilt team who isn’t exactly an SEC doormat anymore as only a 1-point favorite. If the Hokies start 0-2, the message boards will ignite and a list of new head coaches will be drafted shortly after.
