Tim's Week Four College Football Newsletter
Greeting
Greetings from Pete’s wedding! Yes, I am technically idle this Saturday, it’s the only weekend this fall where I will not be on a college campus. Surely, I will be taking full advantage of my time off and getting some much needed rest while I’m at one of my best friend’s weddings right? Anyways, the boys are in Oxford this weekend to experience the Grove at Ole Miss, so I guess pray for all of our livers.
What’s On My Mind
I know we all dread fall weddings, but in all honesty I’m probably gonna be able to watch more live football this Saturday than I have all season. It’s an unfortunate consequence of traveling to a game every Saturday. I’m in the wedding, so I’ll be suited up in a tux, standing right behind one of my best friends as he and his lovely bride say I do and I will 1,000% have my phone perfectly hidden behind one of my fellow groomsman’s backs to sweat these games. I’m a professional afterall. A wedding doesn’t stop me. Do you take this lovely college football slate to be your bride even though you will likely lose every bet you place? I do. Welcome to Week 4
Matchup Previews
#17 Texas Tech @ Utah (-3) | Total: 57.5 | 12:00 PM EST
I think the consensus around the country is that even if you had high expectations for this Texas Tech team before the year, it has still been a pleasant surprise. Actually, you could probably say that about both teams here and they’re doing it in different ways. For Texas Tech it’s all about their passing game led by veteran QB Behren Morton, who’s thrown for 923 yards, 11 TDs and just one INT to start the year. As for Utah, it’s their rushing attack. Offensive coordinator Jason Beck brought his QB Devon Dapier with him from New Mexico and they have revamped the Utes offense to the tune of nearly 300 yards per game on the ground. Despite the 10am local kick we expect plenty of points, so the question is, who’s getting a stop? History would say trust Kyle Whitingham, but it’s worth mentioning that Texas Tech recently received a massive donation from graduate Cody Campbell. Not only did that help the Red Raiders land one of the top transfer classes in CFB and bolster their defense, apparently it also has really pissed off some other coaches in the Big 12, as Ross Dellenger reported this week. Warranted or not, everyone in the conference really wants to beat Texas Tech. Neither team has been tested, but when it comes down to it I think I’m gonna be on Utah here. I trust Kyle Whittingham more than I trust Joey McGuire and this smells like one of those "scheduled losses” for Texas Tech. There’s no shame in losing this game if you’re Tech, it’s a tough place to play and they would still have everything in front of them. I’m not psyched about it, but I’m obviously gonna bet it so give me Utah on the moneyline.
#22 Auburn @ #11 Oklahoma (-7) | Total: 47.5 | 3:30 PM EST
I really want to be on Auburn here, but I’ll be honest the line movement from (-6.5) to (-7) is scaring me a bit. The most obvious story here is Jackson Arnold. After an up-and-down two years at Oklahoma, he went into the portal this offseason and is now an Auburn Tiger. It’s only been Baylor, Ball State and South Alabama, but he’s run for 64 yards per game and four scores, in addition to completing 70% of his passes and adding 4 TDs through the air. Most importantly, he’s completely cut out the turnovers. On the other side, you have Brent Venables who knows Arnold better than anyone and will likely dial up the correct scheme to slow him down. His new QB John Mateer is outstanding, he’s become the Heisman favorite and rightfully so. Given both team’s body of work, it’s pretty clear that Oklahoma has the edge here on offense and defense. They dominated Michigan on both sides of the ball, while Auburn’s offense has clicked, the defense has been a bit leaky. All that being said, I think this is a relatively low scoring game (both teams are over 24 seconds per play), so if I can get (+7.5) with Auburn, I’m gonna take it. I like Hugh Freeze in big games and I’m not gonna not bet it.
#21 Michigan (-2.5) @ Nebraska | Total: 45.5 | 3:30 PM EST
I’ve written almost 10,000 words about college football this year, and this is the hardest matchup I’ve had to think about so far. My heart says Nebraska. I loved Matt Rhule at Big Ten Media Days and think Dylan Raiola has really improved. Their weapons are solid with RB Emmett Johnson and WR Dane Key and the defense is good enough. However, I still don’t completely trust them. I mean c’mon it’s still Nebraska, and I can’t see Michigan coming into this with the same gameplan they had against Oklahoma. Bryce Underwood ran just 3 times in that game and followed it up by taking off 9 times last week against CMU. He’s played on the road now in a hostile environment in Norman, and I don’t think the moment will be too big for him here. If Michigan can run the ball with Justice Haynes, which they should be able to, they’ll be in business, but their defense is not as good as it’s been in years past. I want to bet this game, but I think the number is right. I would lean Michigan and the over if I had to pick, so instead I’m gonna try to live bet the trailing team or live bet the over. FYI Sherrone Moore will be finishing up his NCAA suspension here.
South Carolina @ #23 Missouri (-10.5) | Total: 47.5 | 3:30 PM EST
South Carolina sure sucks, don’t they? A brutal showing against Vandy, and now that we know what Virginia Tech is, that opener looks way worse. There’s been a lot of positive buzz about Beau Pribula, and rightfully so, but I’ve also been pretty impressed by the Missouri defense. Kansas’ offense ran for 207 and 285 in their first two, then Mizzou held them to six yards. That’s important because if LaNorris Sellers plays, which it sounds like he will, Mizzou looks like they’ll be able to negate his ability to run. Meanwhile we know the Tigers can run, and lead the country in rushing yards per game with 344. I’ve mentioned countless times that I wasn’t buying on this South Carolina team, but I also wasn’t buying on Missouri either…I’m still a sucker for a buy low spot and that’s why I grabbed South Carolina (+10.5). I’m assuming Sellers is gonna play which should give them enough juice to at least hang around here.
Florida @ #4 Miami (-9.5) | Total: 56.5 | 7:30 PM EST
I don’t know if it needs to be said when a QB throws five interceptions, but Florida beats LSU with any other QB not named DJ Lagway. They had 23 first downs to LSU’s 10, held LSU to 4/14 on 3rd down and turned Nuss over once. All that to say, I’m not sure how much a good defense matters when your QB is that bad. Not to mention, Florida is getting a Miami team that just demolished USF and held ND to 90 rushing yards with two forced turnovers. Miami is one of six programs to sign a top-10 high school and top-10 transfer class three years in a row and it shows. They’ve got dudes everywhere like WR Malachi Toney, DE Rueben Bain and an extremely motivated and experienced QB in Carson Beck. Everything points to the Hurricanes here, but this spread has gotten out of control. This is still a rivalry game and Florida, despite having numerous opportunities to do so, still hasn’t quit. I’m betting Florida (+9.5) because I love underdogs and hate money.
#9 Illinois @ #19 Indiana (-6.5) | Total: 52.5 | 7:30 PM EST
If you told anyone that a top-20 matchup in Bloomington, Indiana between IU and Illinois would determine postseason fates, I think 99% of the response would be about the basketball programs. Instead, we’ve got Curt Cignetti and Bret Bielema taking two programs with playoff hopes head-to-head in a game where this spread might be too big for me to not take the points with the Illini. This Indiana team might be better than last year's group that went to the Playoff. Cignetti retained 11 starters from last year’s team, added more depth, plus one of the top transfer QBs in Cal’s Fernando Mendoza. Unfortunately, it’s tough to know just how good they are because they’ve played Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State. Illinois has at least seen a test this year, going to Durham and outplaying a solid Duke team for four quarters. Still, all we really know is that Illinois has one of the most experienced teams in the country and that Indiana has a legit operation that is to be taken seriously. I guess if you’re wondering why Indiana is favored in this game it’s because Illinois is more steady eddy and Indiana is more explosive, but again it’s hard to tell with Indiana’s schedule. Which is why I’m gonna take the cheese here, give me the Illini (+6.5). I’m fine taking the steady eddies because at least they’re experienced. This environment won’t be too much for them and while they may not win, I think it comes down to the wire.
The Money Section
Best Bets
James Madison (-8.5) at Liberty
Liberty has been a really successful program over the past few years under Jamey Chadwell and Hugh Freeze before him. However, the biggest knock on the Flames has been they don’t really play anyone and James Madison would certainly qualify as a step up in weight class. Two weeks ago the Dukes were tied with Louisville heading into the 4th quarter. They ended up losing the game, but it was still a solid showing for a program that has also been a recent staple for success. Meanwhile Liberty is 1-2 and has looked anything but impressive. They’ve lost back to back games to Jax State and Bowling Green, two teams with first-year head coaches mind you. James Madison is the far superior team, off a bye, and Liberty is reeling. Give me the Dukes (-8.5) big in Lynchburg.
Duke (-140) vs NC State
Speaking of Dukes, how about the Duke Blue Devils. It hasn’t been a great start for them, they’re 1-2 and their defense which was expected to be strong in Manny Diaz’s second year has been underwhelming. On the other side, the Wolfpack appear to be exceeding expectations, they’re 3-0 and led by a dynamic QB in CJ Bailey. So, NC State is good and Duke is bad right? Not so fast, we’re going with the ole buy low sell high. Duke still has a competent offense, a defense that I trust will make adjustments and has faced far better competition. Additionally, the Wolfpack defense, despite being undefeated, has allowed 300 yards a game through the air and 100 more on the ground. Sure, it will be high scoring, but I trust Duke to get one more stop than State. Give me Duke on the moneyline.
How ‘Bout Some Guys
Brett Norfleet higher than 22.5 receiving yards
When it comes to players, I start my research with one thing: targets. Who’s getting targeted in the passing game and does their projection reflect that or not. Well, despite having just 2 receiving yards last week, Norfleet has 14 targets for Mizzou through 3 games. I think this game will be competitive which means the Tigers will be more inclined to throw. Thus, this number is too low.
Que’Sean Brown higher than 48.5 receiving yards
It’s right above in the Best Bets section, I like Duke because I think NC State’s pass defense is porous at best. They’ve allowed nearly 300 passing yards a game this year and that was against East Carolina, Virginia and Wake Forest. I think we get a high scoring game here, so let's go with a Duke receiver that has 13 catches for 191 yards off of 21 targets this year.
Dane Key higher than 41.5 receiving yards
I’ve said it a bunch, Nebraska picking up Dane Key from Kentucky was one of my favorite portal moves from the offseason. His numbers aren’t astonishing, but he’s a big time player that should rise to the occasion. We saw Oklahoma’s offense move the ball on Michigan and though Mateer is outstanding I also think the Wolverine defense can be had through the air. I’m hoping that Nebraska knows they have to throw because Key should be key (sorry I had to).
Under Pressure
The loser of Illinois Indiana
No one's job will be in jeopardy after this game, but as I said in the preview, this very well could be a de facto play-in game for the CFP. They’re both talented and both have relatively light schedules. I can totally envision a scenario where the Committee is using this head to head to decide who makes the cut for the 12-team Playoff which means the loser will be kicking themselves big-time.
Bill Belichick and UNC
The Chapel Bills travel to UCF as touchdown underdogs this Saturday which means it’s technically an upset if they win the game. At the same time, we all marveled at how easy UNC’s schedule was heading into the season and this was supposed to be a very winnable game. What I’m saying is that, isn’t this a game Bill Belichick should have the edge in? A rebuilding UCF team in Scott Frost’s first year back, isn’t that why you brought in Bill? It won’t be a shock if they lose but it can’t look like the TCU game.
Manny Diaz
I think Manny Diaz was a great hire by Duke and I think they’re better than their 1-2 record which is why they’re one of my best bets. At the same time, he’s off a 9-win season and a 1-3 start would be extremely disappointing especially after the investment they put into signing QB Darian Mensah from the portal. If the defense is the reason for a down year in Durham then that will be on Manny Diaz.
