Blog Posts

Greeting

Greetings from Tempe, Arizona! I enjoyed my “break” last weekend but I’ll tell ya, it feels good to be back on the road. I got a hell of a few days in store, Arizona State tonight, then flying to NYC on Saturday morning to take in a full CFB Saturday slate (that’s pretty loaded mind you) and capping it off by going to the Ryder Cup on Sunday. Best of all, I don’t have to watch Clemson play football this weekend. I just hope my Snapback colleagues are fully recovered from their time at the Grove (which you can watch below) and are ready to match my energy!

What’s On My Mind

Now it gets interesting. You can’t win a championship in September, but you can certainly be removed from the conversation,(you know who you are.) At the same time, we have a handful of teams that appear to be quality candidates, but the problem is that there are still several squads that have yet to truly kickoff their campaign. Luckily for us, this weekend we should have a much better feel for who’s in the race. Now as I, and all of you will try our best to predict how this thing unfolds, the most difficult part by far, is not getting too caught up in the transitive property. I get it, with smaller sample sizes it’s hard to resist and sometimes the transitive property turns out to be true, but we can’t just blindly assume that because one team beat that team, then surely they will beat this team. We all know it's dangerous logic and I’m trying to block it out the best I can, it’s just that sometimes I can’t help myself. Ultimately, I’m not a scientist and I don’t want to be. I’m perfectly fine just being a college football fan and that’s exactly what I plan to do this weekend. Welcome to Week 5.

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Week 5 Matchup Previews

#24 TCU @ Arizona State (-2.5) | Total: 55.5 | Friday Night Kick at 9:00 PM EST

I’ll be in the building for this one so I figured we needed to cover it and of course bet it. To say the TCU offense has been potent would be an understatement. Their QB Josh Hoover is averaging 330 yards a game through the air with 11 TDs and 2 INTs and their star WR Eric McAlister has 320 receiving yards this year off of 13 receptions. Meanwhile, ASU has a stellar QB + WR pair of their own in Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson who has 357 receiving yards of his own this year. That said, it can’t be understated that ASU definitely misses their do it all RB Cam Skattebo. He was their get out of jail free card on third down last year and was greatly missed in ASU’s loss to Mississippi State this year. Neither defense has been much to write home about, the Sun Devils haven’t been very tidy and the Horned Frogs are a weak tackling team. Can you tell where I’m going with this? I’m betting the over here at 54.5 and would take it to 55.5.

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#22 Notre Dame (-4) @ Arkansas | Total: 64.5 | 12:00 PM EST

Who the hell is gonna get a stop? Two capable offenses versus two struggling defenses, it’s no wonder this total is in the 60s. Arkansas should have beaten Memphis last week if not for a late game fumble in the redzone and the week before that, Notre Dame was a 4th down stop away from defeating Texas A&M. This game could come down to similar circumstances as both offenses are perfect matches for their respective opposing defenses. Arkansas has one of the most electric QBs in CFB in Taylen Green who’s averaging 300 yards passing a game and about 100 more on the ground. He should absolutely eat against an Irish defense that’s banged up and ranks 114th in PFFs coverage grade. As for Notre Dame, despite an imperfect offensive line, they have been able to move the ball well enough through the air and on the ground. That should be a perfect match for an atrocious Razorback defense which is allowing nearly 200 yards a game on the ground. All to say the number on the over/under might already be too high for me to bite and while I feel like I’m getting Notre Dame at a bit of a discount, I don’t trust them enough to lay 4 points on the road. I will be looking to live bet whoever is trailing in this game and/or a live over if it starts slowly.

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#1 Ohio State (-8.5) @ Washington | Total: 51.5 | 3:30 PM EST

If you read my CFB SparkNotes and ignored the Clemson glaze, you would have noticed that I was very high on Washington headed into the season mainly because I think their coach Jedd Fisch and their QB Demond Williams are outstanding. Williams ranks second in completion percentage with 6 TDs, 0 INTs, 3 BTT (big time throws), 0 TWP (turnover worthy plays) along with 220 rushing yards. They also have one of the best WRs that no one talks about in Denzel Boston and a capable back in Jonah Coleman. The issue is that the market might have already caught onto the Huskies as this line was Ohio State (-14) back in August and now it’s at (-8.5). Not to mention the fact that Ohio State is also a really good football team. Julian Sayin has done his job and his stud WR Jeremiah Smith could potentially have a big day against the Washington defense which ranks 64th in PFF’s coverage grade. We also know what Ohio State’s defense is capable of, holding opponents to just 8 points per game this year. Still, I’m gonna back the Huskies here (+8.5), not just because of their potent offense, but also the fact that Ohio State’s offense operates at one of the slowest paces in the country in terms of seconds per play which is extremely important when you’re backing an underdog. Husky stadium is one of the toughest places to play on the road and it should be an absolute madhouse. Give me Washington plus the points and let's sprinkle a little moneyline while we're at it.

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#4 LSU @ #13 Ole Miss (-1.5) | Total: 54.5 | 3:30 PM EST

These are two undefeated teams that are both decently flawed. For LSU, they haven’t been able to run the ball, their passing game hasn’t been as explosive as we expected and while their defense has looked strong their performances haven’t necessarily aged well with Clemson and Florida both circling the drain. As for Ole Miss, their backup QB Trinidad Chambliss has been electric, but they still haven’t really been tested. I said in my SparkNotes that I had concerns for the Rebels simply because they had to replace pretty much their entire starting lineup on both sides of the ball. I know Lane Kiffin said take the over and he might have a case considering the Ole Miss defense ranks 108th in opponent yards per run and LSU could be chasing around Chambliss all afternoon, who’s already rushed for 195 yards this season. I want to bet LSU here because I wanna buy on Nussmeier and their improved defense, but there’s just too many unknowns. My plan is that I hope the total continues to go up as a result of what Kiffin said and then take the under right before kickoff.

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Auburn @ #9 Texas A&M (-6.5) | Total: 52.5 | 3:30 PM EST

I have to say, I love both of these teams. Texas A&M’s offense is absolutely on fire led by QB Marcel Reed and a pair of game breaking receivers in Mario Craver and KC Concepcion. Their offense ranks top 30 in nearly every category which is a reason why Reed is now (15/1) to win the Heisman. For Auburn an optimist would say they were a play or two away from beating Oklahoma in Norman last week led by a strong rush defense, however the reality is that they lost that game because their QB Jackson Arnold was completely overwhelmed by the Sooners defense. It’s particularly frustrating for the Tigers because they have elite weapons on the outside like Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, Arnold just needs to be able to get them the ball. It’s clear the Aggies have the edge here when it comes to QB play, but there are reasons to believe that Auburn can hang in there and potentially win outright. Last week their rush defense held Oklahoma to just 32 yards on 26 attempts which is a big deal as they face another capable running QB in Marcel Reed. Additionally, the Aggies defense has been far from spectacular. They rank 122nd in tackling, 57th in rush defense, 45th in pressure and 74th in coverage, per PFF. These are all things that should make Jackson Arnold’s life a little easier. I will note that I’m a bit scared that A&M is off a bye here and Auburn just played a physical game against Oklahoma, but I’m still gonna bet Auburn here. I’m just waiting to see if a (+7) pops, if not I’ll settle for (+6.5).

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Arizona @ #14 Iowa State (-6) | Total: 48.5 | 7:00 PM EST

It’s too early to take a victory lap, but if you read my SparkNotes I said that I was taking Arizona and QB Noah Fifita to have a bounceback year and so far so good. For the record I was also pretty high on Iowa State and their QB Rocco Becht, so how do I pick between two of my favorite CFB children? If we’re being honest, Arizona has had success in a way that I didn’t quite envision, their defense has been really strong and their running game ranks 24th in rush yards per game and 26th in rush attempts per game. I didn’t foresee their RB Ismail Mahdi rushing for 189 yards last against Kansas State. Continuing with honesty, the Cyclones haven’t really looked like world beaters. They beat a mediocre Iowa team, squeaked one out against K-State who we now know isn’t very good and beat Arkansas State by 6. Sure, Becht has 7 TDs, 1 INT and 6 BTT, but this Zona secondary is going to present a challenge led by safety Genesis Smith. The most important stat here is that both teams move quite slowly, they’re both in the bottom third in terms of yards per play which sets up well for both the under and the underdog. The game total has already gotten bet down a bit, but I still think there’s value on Arizona (+6.5) which I will be on for this one.

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#17 Alabama @ #5 Georgia (-3) | Total: 52.5 | 7:30 PM EST

These two teams are such a difficult read because they’ve each played just one serious opponent this season, plus the fact that Kirby Smart is shockingly 1-6 vs Alabama. Despite the loss to FSU, Bama has a lot of good things going for them, they’re expected to get star RB Jam Miller and D-lineman Tim Keenan back, who will both be making their season debuts. Also since the FSU loss, QB Ty Simpson has led a top 10 passing offense for the Tide and if we look at what Tennessee was able to do to the Georgia defense, all signs point to a big day for Simpson and co. It’s also worth mentioning a little bit of bad news, Bama WR Ryan Williams has 4 drops this year, tied for second most in CFB. As for the Bulldogs, they had the training wheels on QB Gunner Stockton early in the season until the Tennessee game where he showed he was more than capable under the bright lights. All of which are reasons why I think we get a high scoring game here. I’m on over 52.5 because I think that Kalen DeBoer will be aggressive in a similar fashion to the way Tennessee was against Georgia and I see Georgia being able to respond especially on the ground taking a page out of FSU’s book. I probably trust the Bama defense a bit more and Georgia’s O-line hasn’t been outstanding, however the fact that the Dawgs are at home should help at least a little bit. If I had to pick I think I’m going Georgia, mostly cause I believe in Kirby more than Kalen, but at the very least, let's take the over.

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#6 Oregon @ #3 Penn State (-3.5) | Total: 52.5 | 7:30 PM EST

Here’s the deal, neither of these teams have played anyone and despite a whole bunch of blowouts it’s obvious that Oregon has taken care of their business in a far more convincing fashion. The question is, was Penn State just sleep walking beating up on inferior opponents, or do they have serious flaws? The market has certainly swung, this line was (-6.5) in August and now it’s (-3.5). The fact that Penn State is one of the most veteran teams in CFB has me leaning towards giving them the benefit of the doubt, but it’s been a bit alarming to see their passing game continue to be underwhelming. For example, through 4 games against cupcakes, Drew Allar has one big time throw, two turnover worthy plays and an average depth of target of 9.2. Those are the numbers of a triple option QB, not an offense that all offseason was stressing the importance of an improved passing game. Meanwhile, Oregon is top 10 in pretty much every single offensive category. Their transfer QB Dante Moore has been lights out after a shaky start to his career at UCLA and their weapons on the outside with the likes of Malik Benson and Dakorien Moore are lethal. I may just be a stubborn contrarian here but I don’t care, I’m picking Penn State because I think the market has overreacted and I see Penn State being able to run the ball. Their two backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton are as good as it gets in CFB and the way to beat Oregon is on the ground. The Ducks rank 44th in EPA when defending the rush which is the perfect recipe for Penn State. Additionally, Penn State’s new DC is Jim Knowles who they plucked from Ohio State, and remember what Ohio State did to Oregon in the Rose Bowl last year? I believe these teams are pretty close to even, however this is the Penn State whiteout, that home field has to be worth slightly more than 3.5 points. Maybe it’s even enough to overcome the fact that James Franklin is 3-17 against top 10 teams. Granted it’s not a giant edge, but obviously I’m betting this game. I’m going to take the Nitty Lions either (-166) or better on the moneyline or buy it down to (-3) before kick.

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The Money Section

Best Bets

Washington (+8.5) vs Ohio State

I said it in the game preview above, I love Jedd Fisch and I really love Demond Williams. The Washington offense is a threat on the ground and through the air and though it might be a tall task for their defense, they are at home and Husky Stadium could be a handful for a young Julian Sayin. I think this could be a giant coming out party for Washington and I’m backing them on the spread with a little flutter on the moneyline.

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Cal at Boston College Over 53

This is a sneaky awesome quarterback matchup. For Cal it’s freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and for BC it’s Alabama transfer Dylan Lonergan. They’ve both had some ups and downs this year, but when they’re on they’re a handful, and neither of these two defenses are special. Cal just allowed 34 to San Diego State and BC had a hard time slowing down Michigan State and Stanford. Let’s take two great QBs here who will face little resistance. Over!

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How ‘Bout Some Guys

Eric Singleton higher than 44.5 receiving yards

One of the better portal adds this summer was Auburn grabbing Singleton from Georgia Tech. His total yardage isn’t eye-popping, but he has 26 targets this season with 11 of them coming last week against Oklahoma. The A&M pass defense isn’t nearly as stingy as the Sooners and Singleton is clearly one of Arnold’s go to guys.

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O’Mega Blake higher than 4.5 receptions

Let’s face it, this Notre Dame defense looks nothing like it did last year and they’re dealing with some injuries as well. I actually buried the lead here, we got a guy named O’Mega! He should have a mega day (sorry) as he has a 25% target share and we’re dealing with a total in the 60s. Everybody should eat here, especially our guy O’Mega.

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Eli Holstein higher than 17.5 rushing yards

When Holstein is healthy, he’s one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He’s got a great arm and he’s not afraid to run. He’s taken off 17 times this year though three games which is a great sign for us. Obviously, we’re worried about sack yards here, but Holstein is a good enough scrambler to exceed this number.

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Under Pressure

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James Franklin

What more do we need to say? No, Penn State is not out of it if they lose at home to Oregon, but it would be another disappointing failure in a high stakes game for him and the Nitty Lions. On the other hand, a win here would do wonders in terms of defeating some of his big-game demons.

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Kalen DeBoer

We know that Kirby Smart is the one who has struggled in this rivalry, but he’s not going anywhere. Technically neither is DeBoer, at least for now, however I don’t need to tell you what the mood will be like in Tuscaloosa if they have two losses before October.

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Notre Dame

I know they’ve faced a daunting schedule, but it would be a really tough pill to swallow if they are officially eliminated from Playoff contention by the end of September. Especially, when they have Jeremiyah Love who’s one of the best players in the country and are coming off playing for the National Title.

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